2020年4月4日土曜日

COVID-19

We obviously cannot go on this way, while the virus seems no longer stoppable. I am all for working together to slow the spread while waiting for drugs to be discovered, but do not think we should be misled to think the virus can be contained any time soon, or take excessive measures that will deprive many people of their means to live. Yes, some people may not make it, but many more may not make it otherwise. It comes down to whether the virus is dangerous enough to justify sacrificing economic activities. The fatality rates reported by the media may be hugely inflated as many of those 80% who do not show symptoms are not found and, therefore, not accounted for in the calculation. Even the seemingly inflated 1-2% rates hardly compare with that of SARS, not to mention those of Ebola and smallpox. The virus seems highly infectious, causing more people to contract it at a higher pace and quickly filling hospital beds (and causing greater fear among people who see that). Again, I am all for doing what we can to slow the spread, but can we realistically stop it at this point? We may be able to stop it temporarily, but then can we stop the movement of people forever? The virus is going to continue to exist on earth, and we seem to have no choice but to live with it (unless it is as fatal as smallpox, in which case everyone should be vaccinated to totally contain the virus). I was in Mexico 11 years ago when the “swine flu” was in full swing. I do not know if anyone even remembers that one, or how the world turned quiet overnight after realizing that the "deadly disease" was no more dangerous than seasonal flu. I hope leaders around the world will sooner than later determine how dangerous COVID-19 actually is, and balance the cost and benefit of the measures they take.