Despite confirmed cases are on the rise, the Japanese government is unlikely to stop economic activity in any meaningful way, as they have learned a lesson the hard way -- Abe obviously wanted to escape responsibility by resigning before the real impact comes.
The government must know that the virus had spread across the country by the time they finally imposed entry restrictions in March, more than a month after the US and Europe, and two months later than Taiwan that successfully contained the disease.
During this time 6.5 million people entered Japan without being tested. To hide the fact that the government let the virus spread, they tried to keep the numbers look small by not testing people – It is hardly reasonable to only allow people who had high fevers for days to get tested, when 70% of those infected do not even show obvious symptoms.
Now the private sector started testing, which is out of the government’s control. Japan is now in the process of “exposing” hidden cases which will likely continue for months. Most Japanese are very naïve and believe what the government tells them, but the truth is the death toll is significantly lower than that of seasonal flu, which indicates the disease is not that fatal to the Japanese.
The government is trying to ease travel restrictions with countries in Southeast Asia ahead of the Olympics. I heard from a contact in Vietnam that their government is not actually allowing Japanese business travelers in as was agreed by the two governments. Taiwan, our friendliest neighbor, has labeled Japan as a high risk country. Ironically, the Japanese themselves do not know these facts as the Japanese media no longer report what is inconvenient for the government.
